{"id":116296,"date":"2026-09-11T15:11:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T13:11:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/publikasjoner\/illustrating-sensitivity-and-uncertainty-in-environmental-fate-models-using-partitioning-maps\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T15:11:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T13:11:15","slug":"illustrating-sensitivity-and-uncertainty-in-environmental-fate-models-using-partitioning-maps","status":"publish","type":"nva_publication","link":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/publications\/illustrating-sensitivity-and-uncertainty-in-environmental-fate-models-using-partitioning-maps\/","title":{"rendered":"Illustrating sensitivity and uncertainty in environmental fate models using partitioning maps"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Variations of model predictions of the environmental fate<br \/>\nof organic contaminants are usually analyzed for only one<br \/>\nor at most a few selected chemicals, even though<br \/>\nparameter sensitivity and contribution to uncertainty are<br \/>\nwidely different for different chemicals. A graphical method<br \/>\nis introduced that allows for the comprehensive investigation of model sensitivity and uncertainty for all persistent organic nonelectrolytes at the same time. This is achieved by defining a two-dimensional hypothetical \u201cchemical space\u201d as a function of the equilibrium partition coefficients between air, water, and octanol (KOW, KAW, KOA), and plotting sensitivity and\/or uncertainty of a specific model result to each input parameter as a function of this chemical space. The approach is illustrated for the bulk phase<br \/>\nconcentrations in air, water, soil, and sediment calculated<br \/>\nby a level III model. Colored contour maps facilitate the<br \/>\nidentification of those input parameters that cause a high<br \/>\noutput variation of hypothetical and real chemicals.<br \/>\nThey also allow for the easy categorization of chemicals<br \/>\nin terms of common parameter sensitivities, and thus<br \/>\ncomparable environmental behavior. Sensitivity varies with<br \/>\nthe mode of emission and the degradability of the<br \/>\nchemicals, making it necessary to develop multiple sets<br \/>\nof contour maps. Comparison of these sets of maps in turn<br \/>\nallows the investigation of how parameter sensitivities<br \/>\nchange as a result of changes in mode of emission and<br \/>\npersistence. The presented method can be used for<br \/>\ninvestigating the sensitivity of any prediction obtained<br \/>\nwith any linear fate model that characterizes the partitioning behavior of organic chemicals with KAW, KOW, and KOA.<br \/>\nOnce the sensitivity maps have been constructed for a given<br \/>\nenvironmental scenario, it is possible to perform a<br \/>\nsensitivity analysis for a specific chemical by simple<br \/>\nplacement of the substances\u2019 partitioning combinations<br \/>\nwithin the chemical space. The maps can further contribute<br \/>\nto the mechanistic understanding of a model\u2019s behavior,<br \/>\ncan aid in explaining observations of divergent environmental behavior of related substances, and can provide a rationale for grouping chemicals with similar model behavior, or for selecting representative example chemicals for a model investigation. They can also help in deciding when accurate and precise knowledge of physical<br \/>\nchemical property data is crucial and when approximate<br \/>\nnumbers suffice to conduct a model investigation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_searchwp_excluded":"","_id":"","_status":"PUBLISHED","_sync_date":"2026-09-11 14:12:14","footnotes":""},"nva_tax_category":[1099],"class_list":["post-116296","nva_publication","type-nva_publication","status-publish","hentry","nva_tax_category-scientific-journal-publication"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication\/116296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/nva_publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication\/116296\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"nva_tax_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_tax_category?post=116296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}