{"id":118907,"date":"2026-09-11T21:49:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T19:49:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/publikasjoner\/relative-impacts-of-sea-ice-loss-and-atmospheric-internal-variability-on-the-winter-arctic-to-east-asian-surface-air-temperature-based-on-large-ensemble-simulations-with-noresm2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T21:49:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T19:49:31","slug":"relative-impacts-of-sea-ice-loss-and-atmospheric-internal-variability-on-the-winter-arctic-to-east-asian-surface-air-temperature-based-on-large-ensemble-simulations-with-noresm2","status":"publish","type":"nva_publication","link":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/publications\/relative-impacts-of-sea-ice-loss-and-atmospheric-internal-variability-on-the-winter-arctic-to-east-asian-surface-air-temperature-based-on-large-ensemble-simulations-with-noresm2\/","title":{"rendered":"Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the \u201cwarm Arctic, cold East Asia\u201d (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere\u2013land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_searchwp_excluded":"","_id":"","_status":"PUBLISHED","_sync_date":"2026-09-11 14:48:36","footnotes":""},"nva_tax_category":[1099],"class_list":["post-118907","nva_publication","type-nva_publication","status-publish","hentry","nva_tax_category-scientific-journal-publication"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication\/118907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/nva_publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication\/118907\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"nva_tax_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_tax_category?post=118907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}