{"id":72462,"date":"2026-10-27T22:58:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T21:58:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/publikasjoner\/soil-degradation-in-europe-is-projected-to-accelerate-under-changing-land-use-and-climate\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T22:58:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T21:58:14","slug":"soil-degradation-in-europe-is-projected-to-accelerate-under-changing-land-use-and-climate","status":"publish","type":"nva_publication","link":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/publications\/soil-degradation-in-europe-is-projected-to-accelerate-under-changing-land-use-and-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Soil degradation in Europe is projected to accelerate under changing land use and climate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Soil degradation threatens food security and environmental sustainability, yet future projections of it are rare. Using projections from 18 global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and land-use projections from the Land Use and Climate Across Scales Land Use Change (LUCAS LUC) dataset, we assess future soil vulnerability to degradation by linking a Soil Degradation Proxy (SDP) to climate, land-use, soil characteristics, and socio-economic factors at 7433 observation sites across Europe. We project that by 2071\u20132100, ~59% of sites may become more vulnerable under the high-emission scenario. Cold forest regions in northern Europe are projected to face increased degradation pressure by ~+0.04SDP. However, some European croplands may improve locally through conversion to secondary lands, reduced human pressures, and natural recovery processes. These regionally specific trends highlight that, while soil degradation remains a major threat, proactive land management can mitigate soil vulnerability under future climate trajectories.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_searchwp_excluded":"","_id":"","_status":"PUBLISHED","_sync_date":"2026-10-27 22:54:19","footnotes":""},"nva_tax_category":[927],"class_list":["post-72462","nva_publication","type-nva_publication","status-publish","hentry","nva_tax_category-scientific-journal-publication"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication\/72462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/nva_publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_publication\/72462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"nva_tax_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nva_tax_category?post=72462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}