{"id":60402,"date":"2026-05-18T08:32:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T06:32:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/?p=60402"},"modified":"2026-05-18T08:32:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T06:32:07","slug":"can-cities-grow-economically-while-reducing-dependence-on-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/2026\/05\/can-cities-grow-economically-while-reducing-dependence-on-fossil-fuels\/","title":{"rendered":"Can cities grow economically while reducing dependence on fossil fuels?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Amirhossein Hassani, Daniel Dean Moran, Sam-Erik Walker, Kerstin Stebel, and Philipp Schneider<\/em><\/p>\n

A new study, published this week in Nature Cities<\/em><\/a>, provides one of the first globally consistent assessments of whether cities are managing to grow economically while reducing dependence on fossil fuel combustion.<\/p>\n

Satellite data indicate fossil fuel use<\/h2>\n

Cities are responsible for a large share of both global economic activity and emissions, making them central to climate and sustainability transitions. However, tracking whether cities are successfully \u201cdecoupling\u201d economic growth from fossil fuel use has long been difficult due to inconsistent and incomplete data on both emissions and urban economies.<\/p>\n

To overcome this, a new global study led by scientists from NILU and international partners, for the first time tracks how economic growth in thousands of cities is evolving in relation to fossil fuel use. Satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO\u2082) from the European Sentinel-5P TROPOMI instrument were used as an indicator of combustion-related activity, combined with subnational economic data (GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power). NO\u2082 is closely linked to emissions from transport, industry, and power generation, and provides a globally consistent way to track changes in fossil fuel use at the city scale.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is encouraging to see green growth in action, especially since we know that cities have the same power, and often much more willingness than national politicians, to go fossil-free,\u201d said Daniel Moran, co-author of the study.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Tehran, the capital of Iran, shows the highest level of increase in satellite observed NO2<\/sub> relative to population among global megacities (cities with more than 10 million residents) in this study (Photo: Colourbox).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Clear regional differences<\/h2>\n

The worldwide analysis covers 5,435 cities with populations above 100,000 over the period 2019\u20132024. Of these, 2,475 cities showed statistically significant trends in NO\u2082 levels and were classified according to how pollution and economic growth evolved together.<\/p>\n

The results show that around 80% of these cities experienced relative decoupling, meaning that economic growth increased while NO\u2082 pollution decreased or grew more slowly. These cities are mainly located in China, Europe, and North America. In contrast, about 16% of cities, primarily in India, the Middle East, and parts of Central Asia, showed fossil fuel-dependent growth, where both economic activity and NO\u2082 levels increased.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe progress in some regions, especially in China, is remarkable\u201d, said Amir Hassani, lead author of the study. \u201cSome regions have discovered how to grow without using more fossil fuels.\u201d<\/p>\n

Clear regional differences emerge from the analysis. Many cities in East Asia and Europe show strong signs of decoupling, likely reflecting air quality policies, energy transitions, and changes in industrial structure. For example, several major Chinese cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, show declining NO\u2082 levels alongside continued economic growth, consistent with large-scale air quality management and electrification efforts. Similar patterns are observed in European cities such as Paris, Berlin, and Amsterdam.<\/p>\n

The study does not consider outsourcing, notes Moran. \u201cIt is possible that wealthy cities can reduce emissions locally while their global footprint continues to grow.\u201d The authors say this trend is unlikely to affect the results during the relatively short 6-year window considered in the study.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Global typology of cities. Figure: Nature Cities, DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s44284-026-00440-0).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

However, rapidly growing urban areas in parts of South Asia and the Middle East continue to show increasing dependence on fossil fuels. This suggests that economic expansion in these regions remains closely tied to combustion-based energy systems.<\/p>\n

A new tool for monitoring urban sustainability<\/h2>\n

The study emphasizes that NO\u2082 is not a measure of carbon dioxide emissions or overall environmental impact, but rather an indicator of combustion-related activity. The approach therefore captures \u2018relative decoupling\u2019, changes in the relationship between economic growth and fossil fuel use, rather than absolute emissions reductions.<\/p>\n

The research also highlights important uncertainties, including differences in economic data quality across countries and the relatively short analysis period of six years, which includes the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

Beyond these limitations, it introduces a scalable framework that can be regularly updated using satellite data, as a new tool for monitoring urban sustainability transitions and supporting climate and energy policy. Continued progress will likely depend on targeted policies, technological change, and international cooperation, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions where fossil fuel dependence remains high.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amirhossein Hassani, Daniel Dean Moran, Sam-Erik Walker, Kerstin Stebel, and Philipp Schneider A new study, published this week in Nature Cities, provides one of the first globally consistent assessments of whether cities are managing to grow economically while reducing dependence on fossil fuel combustion. Satellite data indicate fossil fuel use Cities are responsible for a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":60404,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_searchwp_excluded":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsarchive"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60402"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60409,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60402\/revisions\/60409"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60404"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nilu.gnist.dev\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}