Integrert rammeverk for risikoevaluering av samlet påvirkning på arktiske økosystemer (COPE) (Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Evaluating the Combined Impacts of Multiple Pressures on Arctic Ecosystems (COPE))

Arctic ecosystems are subject to multiple pressures, of which two of the major challenges are climate change and exposure to long-range transported, persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic contaminants. These issues have largely been addressed individually, yet there is a critical need to enhance the understanding of combined impacts of multiple pressures and their interactions on Arctic ecosystem state and health. This calls for better integration of research both within and across disciplines in a comprehensive research initiative. The primary objective of this proposal is to develop, explore, and evaluate a novel integrated risk assessment framework for assessing combined impacts of multiple pressures on the state of Arctic ecosystems. The focus herein will be upon data-rich pressures and ecosystems to enable development and a thorough evaluation of the framework. Hence, the initial focus will be on interacting effects of environmental organic contaminants and climate change on top-predators of a coastal and an offshore Arctic marine ecosystem in the Svalbard and Barents Sea areas. Important sub-goals include research to (1) develop the framework through evaluating existing knowledge of the most relevant pressures and their interactions, (2) explore the utility of the framework to assess interactions of contaminants and climate change on the state of two selected Arctic marine ecosystems, (3) explore the utility of the framework to assess combined impacts across ecosystems, space, and time, and (4) evaluate the overall framework, guide further research, and communicate key results to regulatory bodies and institutions. Overall, the project is designed to both (i) strengthen research on critical Arctic environmental issues across disciplines and institutions, and (ii) contribute with scientific knowledge and possible mitigation strategies of interest to relevant environmental agencies as well as international programs and agreements.