Fant 10273 publikasjoner. Viser side 178 av 411:
2014
As the leading climate mode of wintertime climate variability over Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been extensively studied over the last decades. Recently, studies highlighted the state of the Eurasian cryosphere as a possible predictor for the wintertime NAO. However, missing correlation between snow cover and wintertime NAO in climate model experiments and strong non-stationarity of this link in reanalysis data are questioning the causality of this relationship.
Here we use the large ensemble of Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (ASF-20C) with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, focusing on the winter season. Besides the main 110-year ensemble of 51 members, we investigate a second, perturbed ensemble of 21 members where initial (November) land conditions over the Northern Hemisphere are swapped from neighboring years. The Eurasian snow–NAO linkage is examined in terms of a longitudinal snow depth dipole across Eurasia. Subsampling the perturbed forecast ensemble and contrasting members with high and low initial snow dipole conditions, we found that their composite difference indicates more negative NAO states in the following winter (DJF) after positive west-to-east snow depth gradients at the beginning of November. Surface and atmospheric forecast anomalies through the troposphere and stratosphere associated with the anomalous positive snow dipole consist of colder early winter surface temperatures over eastern Eurasia, an enhanced Ural ridge and increased vertical energy fluxes into the stratosphere, with a subsequent negative NAO-like signature in the troposphere. We thus confirm the existence of a causal connection between autumn snow patterns and subsequent winter circulation in the ASF-20C forecasting system.
2021
2022
2008
2012
2020
2017
Impact of late spring Siberian snow on summer rainfall in South-Central China
Located in the Yangtze River Valley and surrounded by mountains, South-Central China (SCC) frequently suffered from natural disasters such as torrential precipitation, landslide and debris flow. Here we provide corroborative evidence for a link between the late spring (May) snow water equivalent (SWE) over Siberia and the summer (July–August, abbr. JA) rainfall in SCC. We show that, in May, anomalously low SWE over Siberia is robustly related to a large warming from the surface to the mid-troposphere, and to a stationary Rossby wave train from Siberia eastward toward the North Atlantic. On the one hand, over the North Atlantic there exhibits a tripole pattern response of sea surface temperature anomalies in May. It persists to some extent in JA and in turn triggers a wave train propagating downstream across Eurasia and along the Asian jet, as the so-called Silk Road pattern (SRP). On the other hand, over northern Siberia the drier soil occurs in JA, accompanied by an overlying anomalous anticyclone through the positive feedback. This anomalous anticyclone favors the tropospheric cooling over southern Siberia, and the meridional (northward) displacement of the Asian jet (JMD) due to the change in the meridional temperature gradient. The combination of the SRP and the JMD facilitates less water vapor transport from the tropical oceans and anomalous descending motion over SCC, and thus suppresses the precipitation. These findings indicate that May Siberian SWE can be exploited for seasonal predictability of SCC precipitation.
2020
Impact of leakage during HFC-125 production on the increase in HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 emissions
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are ozone-depleting substances whose production and consumption have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol in non-Article 5 (mainly developed) countries and are currently being phased out in the rest of the world. Here, we focus on two HCFCs, HCFC-123 and HCFC-124, whose emissions are not decreasing globally in line with their phase-out. We present the first measurement-derived estimates of global HCFC-123 emissions (1993–2023) and updated HCFC-124 emissions for 1978–2023. Around 5 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-123 and 3 Gg yr−1 of HCFC-124 were emitted in 2023. Both HCFC-123 and HCFC-124 are intermediates in the production of HFC-125, a non-ozone-depleting hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) that has replaced ozone-depleting substances in many applications. We show that it is possible that the observed global increase in HCFC-124 emissions could be entirely due to leakage from the production of HFC-125, provided that its leakage rate is around 1 % by mass of HFC-125 production. Global emissions of HCFC-123 have not decreased despite its phase-out for production under the Montreal Protocol, and its use in HFC-125 production may be a contributing factor to this. Emissions of HCFC-124 from western Europe, the USA and East Asia have either fallen or not increased since 2015 and together cannot explain the entire increase in the derived global emissions of HCFC-124. These findings add to the growing evidence that emissions of some ozone-depleting substances are increasing due to leakage and improper destruction during fluorochemical production.
2025
2006
2014
2019
2019
2019
2020
2021
2014
2015
2010
2009
2009
2015
2017
2019