Fant 10273 publikasjoner. Viser side 33 av 411:
2008
2023
2009
2009
An inter-comparison of inverse models for estimating European CH4 emissions
Atmospheric inversions are widely used to evaluate and improve inventories of methane (CH4) emissions across scales from global to local, combining observations with atmospheric transport models. This study uses the dense network of in situ stations of the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) to explore how well in situ data can constrain European CH4 emissions. Following the concept of inter-comparison studies of the atmospheric tracer transport model inter-comparison Project (TransCom), a CH4 inverse inter-comparison modeling study has been performed, focusing on Europe for the period 2006–2018. The aim is to investigate the capability of inverse models to deliver consistent flux estimates at the national scale and evaluate trends in emission inventories, using a detailed dataset of CH4 emissions described and presented here for first time.
Study participants were asked to perform inverse modelling computations using a common database of a priori CH4 emissions and in-situ observations as specified in a protocol. The participants submitted their best estimates of CH4 emissions for the 27 European Union (EU-27) member states, the United Kingdom (UK), Switzerland, and Norway. Results were collected from 9 different inverse modelling systems, using 7 different global and regional transport models. The range of outcomes allows us to assess posterior emission uncertainty, accounting for transport model uncertainty and inversion design decisions, including a priori emission and model-data mismatch uncertainty.
This paper presents inversion results covering 15 years, that are used to investigate the seasonality and trends of CH4 emissions. The different inversion systems show a range of a posteriori emission adjustments, pointing to factors that should receive further attention in the design of inversions such as optimising background mole fractions. Most inverse models increase the seasonal cycle amplitude, by up to 400 Gg month−1, with the largest adjustments to the a priori emissions in Western and Eastern Europe. This might be due to underestimation of emissions from wetlands during summer or the importance of seasonality in other microbial sources, such as landfills and waste water treatment plants. In Northern Europe, absolute flux adjustments are comparatively small, which could imply that the emission magnitude is relatively well captured by the a priori, though the lower station density could contribute also.
Across Europe, the inverse models yield a similar decreasing trend in CH4 emissions compared to the a priori emissions (−12.3 % instead of −9.1 %) from 2006 to 2018. While both the a priori and the a posteriori trend for the EU-27 are statistically significant from zero, their difference is not. On a subregional scale, the differences between a posteriori and a priori trends are more statistically significant over regions with more in-situ measurement sites, such as over Western and Southern Europe.
Uncertainties in the a priori anthropogenic emissions, such as in the agriculture sector (cows, manure), or waste sector (microbial CH4 emissions), but also in the a priori natural emissions, e.g. wetlands, might be responsible for the discrepancies between the a priori and a posteriori emission shift in the trends in Western, Eastern and Southern Europe.
Our results highlight the importance of improving the inversion setup, such as the treatment of lateral boundary conditions and the model representation of measurement sites, to narrow the uncertainty ranges further. The referenced dataset related to the analysis and figures are available at the ICOS portal: https://doi.org/10.18160/KZ63-2NDJ (Ioannidis et al., 2025).
2026
2005
2015
Estimation of pollutant releases into the atmosphere is an important problem in the environmental sciences. It is typically formalized as an inverse problem using a linear model that can explain observable quantities (e.g., concentrations or deposition values) as a product of the source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) matrix obtained from an atmospheric transport model multiplied by the unknown source-term vector. Since this problem is typically ill-posed, current state-of-the-art methods are based on regularization of the problem and solution of a formulated optimization problem. This procedure depends on manual settings of uncertainties that are often very poorly quantified, effectively making them tuning parameters. We formulate a probabilistic model, that has the same maximum likelihood solution as the conventional method using pre-specified uncertainties. Replacement of the maximum likelihood solution by full Bayesian estimation also allows estimation of all tuning parameters from the measurements. The estimation procedure is based on the variational Bayes approximation which is evaluated by an iterative algorithm. The resulting method is thus very similar to the conventional approach, but with the possibility to also estimate all tuning parameters from the observations. The proposed algorithm is tested and compared with the standard methods on data from the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) where advantages of the new method are demonstrated. A MATLAB implementation of the proposed algorithm is available for download.
2020
prismAId is an open-source tool designed to streamline systematic literature reviews by leveraging generative AI models for information extraction. It offers an accessible, efficient, and replicable method for extracting and analyzing data from scientific literature, eliminating the need for coding expertise. Supporting various review protocols, including PRISMA 2020, prismAId is distributed across multiple platforms – Go, Python, Julia, R – and provides user-friendly binaries compatible with Windows, macOS, and Linux. The tool integrates with leading large language models (LLMs) such as OpenAI’s GPT series, Google’s Gemini, Cohere’s Command, and Anthropic’s Claude, ensuring comprehensive and up-to-date literature analysis. prismAId facilitates systematic reviews, enabling researchers to conduct thorough, fast, and reproducible analyses, thereby advancing open science initiatives.
2025
2010
2016
2022
2005
Radiocarbon (14C) analysis of carbonaceous aerosols is used for source apportionment, separating the carbon content into fossil vs. non-fossil origin, and is particularly useful when applied to subfractions of total carbon (TC), i.e. elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), water-soluble OC (WSOC), and water-insoluble OC (WINSOC). However, this requires an unbiased physical separation of these fractions, which is difficult to achieve. Separation of EC from OC using thermal–optical analysis (TOA) can cause EC loss during the OC removal step and form artificial EC from pyrolysis of OC (i.e. so-called charring), both distorting the 14C analysis of EC. Previous work has shown that water extraction reduces charring. Here, we apply a new combination of a WSOC extraction and 14C analysis method with an optimised separation that is coupled with a novel approach of thermal-desorption modelling for compensation of EC losses. As water-soluble components promote the formation of pyrolytic carbon, water extraction was used to minimise the charring artefact of EC and the eluate subjected to chemical wet oxidation to CO2 before direct 14C analysis in a gas-accepting accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS). This approach was applied to 13 aerosol filter samples collected at the Arctic Zeppelin Observatory (Svalbard) in 2017 and 2018, covering all seasons, which bear challenges for a simplified 14C source apportionment due to their low loading and the large portion of pyrolysable species. Our approach provided a mean EC yield of 0.87±0.07 and reduced the charring to 6.5 % of the recovered EC amounts. The mean fraction modern (F14C) over all seasons was 0.85±0.17 for TC; 0.61±0.17 and 0.66±0.16 for EC before and after correction with the thermal-desorption model, respectively; and 0.81±0.20 for WSOC.
2023
This optimized protocol (including links to instruction videos) describes a comet-based in vitro DNA repair assay that is relatively simple, versatile, and inexpensive, enabling the detection of base and nucleotide excision repair activity. Protein extracts from samples are incubated with agarose-embedded substrate nucleoids (‘naked’ supercoiled DNA) containing specifically induced DNA lesions (e.g., resulting from oxidation, UVC radiation or benzo[a]pyrene-diol epoxide treatment). DNA incisions produced during the incubation reaction are quantified as strand breaks after electrophoresis, reflecting the extract’s incision activity. The method has been applied in cell culture model systems, human biomonitoring and clinical investigations, and animal studies, using isolated blood cells and various solid tissues. Once extracts and substrates are prepared, the assay can be completed within 2 d.
2020
2013
2008
2021
2015
2014