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2015
2005
An inter-comparison of inverse models for estimating European CH4 emissions
Atmospheric inversions are widely used to evaluate and improve inventories of methane (CH4) emissions across scales from global to local, combining observations with atmospheric transport models. This study uses the dense network of in situ stations of the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) to explore how well in situ data can constrain European CH4 emissions. Following the concept of inter-comparison studies of the atmospheric tracer transport model inter-comparison Project (TransCom), a CH4 inverse inter-comparison modeling study has been performed, focusing on Europe for the period 2006–2018. The aim is to investigate the capability of inverse models to deliver consistent flux estimates at the national scale and evaluate trends in emission inventories, using a detailed dataset of CH4 emissions described and presented here for first time.
Study participants were asked to perform inverse modelling computations using a common database of a priori CH4 emissions and in-situ observations as specified in a protocol. The participants submitted their best estimates of CH4 emissions for the 27 European Union (EU-27) member states, the United Kingdom (UK), Switzerland, and Norway. Results were collected from 9 different inverse modelling systems, using 7 different global and regional transport models. The range of outcomes allows us to assess posterior emission uncertainty, accounting for transport model uncertainty and inversion design decisions, including a priori emission and model-data mismatch uncertainty.
This paper presents inversion results covering 15 years, that are used to investigate the seasonality and trends of CH4 emissions. The different inversion systems show a range of a posteriori emission adjustments, pointing to factors that should receive further attention in the design of inversions such as optimising background mole fractions. Most inverse models increase the seasonal cycle amplitude, by up to 400 Gg month−1, with the largest adjustments to the a priori emissions in Western and Eastern Europe. This might be due to underestimation of emissions from wetlands during summer or the importance of seasonality in other microbial sources, such as landfills and waste water treatment plants. In Northern Europe, absolute flux adjustments are comparatively small, which could imply that the emission magnitude is relatively well captured by the a priori, though the lower station density could contribute also.
Across Europe, the inverse models yield a similar decreasing trend in CH4 emissions compared to the a priori emissions (−12.3 % instead of −9.1 %) from 2006 to 2018. While both the a priori and the a posteriori trend for the EU-27 are statistically significant from zero, their difference is not. On a subregional scale, the differences between a posteriori and a priori trends are more statistically significant over regions with more in-situ measurement sites, such as over Western and Southern Europe.
Uncertainties in the a priori anthropogenic emissions, such as in the agriculture sector (cows, manure), or waste sector (microbial CH4 emissions), but also in the a priori natural emissions, e.g. wetlands, might be responsible for the discrepancies between the a priori and a posteriori emission shift in the trends in Western, Eastern and Southern Europe.
Our results highlight the importance of improving the inversion setup, such as the treatment of lateral boundary conditions and the model representation of measurement sites, to narrow the uncertainty ranges further. The referenced dataset related to the analysis and figures are available at the ICOS portal: https://doi.org/10.18160/KZ63-2NDJ (Ioannidis et al., 2025).
2026
2009
2009
2023
2008
2001
2005
An Infrastructural Analysis of a Crowdsourcing Tool for Environmental Research
In this paper, we adopt information infrastructure design principles and concepts from the theory of critical mass to analyze and evaluate the socio-technical conditions that hindered the successful bootstrapping processes of a crowdsourcing tool for environmental research. The crowdsourcing tool was designed to improve the estimation of emissions from burning wood for residential heating in urban areas in Norway by collecting geolocation data on wood consumption and stove types. Our analysis identifies three groups of users, namely scientists, wood consumers (end users), and key stakeholders, that the IT capability of the tool needs to support. At this stage, we determined that the tool was more useful to the scientists than the other two groups, which was attributed to its low uptake. We uncovered various underlying issues through further analysis of means by which the tool becomes useful to key stakeholders. One particular issue concerned the tension between existing data collection practices, which are based on statistical methods, and the nature of crowdsourcing, which is based on the principle of open call with no sampling techniques. From our analysis, we concluded that developing crowdsourcing tools for research requires increasing the tool’s benefits for key stakeholders by addressing these underlying issues. Inferring from the theory of critical mass for collective action, we recommend that developers of crowdsourcing tools include a function that allows users to view the contributions of other users.
2018
A freely available “in vitro dosimetry” web application is presented enabling users to predict the concentration of nanomaterials reaching the cell surface, and therefore available for attachment and internalization, from initial dispersion concentrations. The web application is based on the distorted grid (DG) model for the dispersion of engineered nanoparticles (NPs) in culture medium used for in vitro cellular experiments, in accordance with previously published protocols for cellular dosimetry determination. A series of in vitro experiments for six different NPs, with Ag and Au cores, are performed to demonstrate the convenience of the web application for calculation of exposure concentrations of NPs. Our results show that the exposure concentrations at the cell surface can be more than 30 times higher compared to the nominal or dispersed concentrations, depending on the NPs’ properties and their behavior in the cell culture medium. Therefore, the importance of calculating the exposure concentration at the bottom of the cell culture wells used for in vitro arrays, i.e., the particle concentration at the cell surface, is clearly presented, and the tool introduced here allows users easy access to such calculations. Widespread application of this web tool will increase the reliability of subsequent toxicity data, allowing improved correlation of the real exposure concentration with the observed toxicity, enabling the hazard potentials of different NPs to be compared on a more robust basis.
2022
2023
2007
2009
2010
2016
2024
2012