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In the framework of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (FAIRMODE), a modelling intercomparison exercise for computing NO2 long-term average concentrations in urban districts with a very high spatial resolution was carried out. This exercise was undertaken for a district of Antwerp (Belgium). Air quality data includes data recorded in air quality monitoring stations and 73 passive samplers deployed during one-month period in 2016. The modelling domain was 800 × 800 m2. Nine modelling teams participated in this exercise providing results from fifteen different modelling applications based on different kinds of model approaches (CFD – Computational Fluid Dynamics-, Lagrangian, Gaussian, and Artificial Intelligence). Some approaches consisted of models running the complete one-month period on an hourly basis, but most others used a scenario approach, which relies on simulations of scenarios representative of wind conditions combined with post-processing to retrieve a one-month average of NO2 concentrations.
The objective of this study is to evaluate what type of modelling system is better suited to get a good estimate of long-term averages in complex urban districts. This is very important for air quality assessment under the European ambient air quality directives. The time evolution of NO2 hourly concentrations during a day of relative high pollution was rather well estimated by all models. Relative to high resolution spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averaged concentrations, Gaussian models were not able to give detailed information, unless they include building data and street-canyon parameterizations. The models that account for complex urban geometries (i.e. CFD, Lagrangian, and AI models) appear to provide better estimates of the spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averages concentrations in the urban canopy. Approaches based on steady CFD-RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) model simulations of meteorological scenarios seem to provide good results with similar quality to those obtained with an unsteady one-month period CFD-RANS simulations.
Elsevier
2024
2024
2024
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were analysed in a high number of terrestrial samples of soil, earthworm, bird eggs and liver from red fox and brown rat in an urban area in Norway from 2013 to 2020. PFOS and the long chain PFCAs were the most dominating compounds in all samples, proving their ubiquitous distribution. Other less studied compounds such as 6:2 FTS were first and foremost detected in earthworm. 8:2 FTS was found in many samples of fieldfare egg, sparrowhawk egg and earthworm, where the eggs had highest concentrations. Highest concentrations for both 6:2 FTS and 8:2 FTS were detected at present and former industry areas. FOSA was detected in many samples of the species with highest concentrations in red fox liver and brown rat liver of 3.3 and 5.5 ng/g ww.
PFAS concentrations from the urban area were significantly higher than from background areas indicating that some of the species can be suitable as markers for PFAS emissions in an urban environment. Fieldfare eggs had surprisingly high concentrations of PFOS and PFCA concentrations from areas known to be or have been influenced by industry. Biota-soil-accumulation factor and magnification calculations indicate accumulation and magnification potential for several PFAS.
Earthworm and fieldfare egg had average concentrations above the Canadian and European thresholds in diet for avian wildlife and predators. For earthworms, 18 % of the samples exceeded the European threshold (33 ng/g ww) of PFOS in prey for predators, and for fieldfare eggs, 35 % of the samples were above the same threshold. None of the soil samples exceeded a proposed PNEC of PFOS for soil living organisms of 373 ng/g dw.
Elsevier
2024
This study investigates the impact of meteorological variations on the long-term patterns of PM2.5 in Delhi from 2007 to 2022 using the AirGAM 2022r1 model. Generalized Additive Modeling was employed to analyze meteorology-adjusted (removing the influence of inter-annual variations in meteorology) and unadjusted trends (trends without considering meteorology) while addressing auto-correlation. PM2.5 levels showed a modest decline of 14 μg m−3 unadjusted and 18 μg m−3 meteorology-adjusted over the study period. Meteorological conditions and time factors significantly influenced trends. Temperature, wind speed, wind direction, humidity, boundary layer height, medium-height cloud cover, precipitation, and time variables including day-of-week, day-of-year, and overall time, were used as GAM model inputs. The model accounted for 55% of PM2.5 variability (adjusted R-squared = 0.55). Day-of-week and medium-height cloud cover were non-significant, while other covariates were significant (p
Elsevier
2024
2024
Understanding thermal comfort expectations in older adults: The role of long-term thermal history
Understanding how long-term thermal history affects thermal comfort expectations in older adults (65+) has implications for designing energy-efficient spaces in a changing climate. A growing number of studies focus on thermal sensation/preference votes to represent the current thermal comfort expectations, often overlooking their limitations. This study, however, investigates how factors shaping long-term thermal history link to the current 65+ adults indoor thermal comfort expectations during exposure to heat, by focusing on the upper limit of thermally acceptable temperature range, represented by a self-reported temperature threshold at which 65+ adults believe to feel uncomfortable by indoor heat (Tit). To find Tit, we use answers to “Above what temperature do you start feeling too hot indoors?” by survey respondents in Warsaw (n = 678) and Madrid (n = 527), who lived in their apartment ≥5 years. Statistically, we find indoor factors affecting long-term thermal experiences more significant in explaining 65+ Tit, when compared to outdoor factors such as distance to water, vegetation, or surface thermal radiance. Better-insulated buildings were associated with a lower Tit [...]
Elsevier
2024
Assessment of transboundary pollution with heavy metals and POPs
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East (MSC-E)
2024
Ammonia emission estimates using CrIS satellite observations over Europe
Over the past century, ammonia (NH3) emissions have increased with the growth of livestock and fertilizer usage. The abundant NH3 emissions lead to secondary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, climate change, and a reduction in biodiversity, and they affect human health. Up-to-date and spatially and temporally resolved information on NH3 emissions is essential to better quantify their impact. In this study we applied the existing Daily Emissions Constrained by Satellite Observations (DECSO) algorithm to NH3 observations from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) to estimate NH3 emissions. Because NH3 in the atmosphere is influenced by nitrogen oxides (NOx), we implemented DECSO to estimate NOx and NH3 emissions simultaneously. The emissions are derived over Europe for 2020 on a spatial resolution of 0.2°×0.2° using daily observations from both CrIS and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI; on the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite). Due to the limited number of daily satellite observations of NH3, monthly emissions of NH3 are reported. The total NH3 emissions derived from observations are about 8 Tg yr−1, with a precision of about 5 %–17 % per grid cell per year over the European domain (35–55° N, 10° W–30° E). The comparison of the satellite-derived NH3 emissions from DECSO with independent bottom-up inventories and in situ observations indicates a consistency in terms of magnitude on the country totals, with the results also being comparable regarding the temporal and spatial distributions. The validation of DECSO over Europe implies that we can use DECSO to quickly derive fairly accurate monthly emissions of NH3 over regions with limited local information on NH3 emissions.
2024
This report gives an overview of annual statistics and results from the monitoring programme of ozone in EMEP 2022.
NILU
2024
European pollen reanalysis, 1980–2022, for alder, birch, and olive
The dataset presents a 43 year-long reanalysis of pollen seasons for three major allergenic genera of trees in Europe: alder (Alnus), birch (Betula), and olive (Olea). Driven by the meteorological reanalysis ERA5, the atmospheric composition model SILAM predicted the flowering period and calculated the Europe-wide dispersion pattern of pollen for the years 1980–2022. The model applied an extended 4-dimensional variational data assimilation of in-situ observations of aerobiological networks in 34 European countries to reproduce the inter-annual variability and trends of pollen production and distribution. The control variable of the assimilation procedure was the total pollen release during each flowering season, implemented as an annual correction factor to the mean pollen production. The dataset was designed as an input to studies on climate-induced and anthropogenically driven changes in the European vegetation, biodiversity monitoring, bioaerosol modelling and assessment, as well as, in combination with intra-seasonal observations, for health-related applications.
Springer Nature
2024
New advanced models (NAMs) for risk assessment of bisphenol A alternatives
The safety of bisphenol A (BPA) due to its adverse effects on the immune system has led to an increasing concern and a significant regulatory shift. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) proposed a reduction in the tolerable daily intake (TDI) of BPA in food in their 2023 scientific opinion, highlighting the need for stricter regulations compared to their previous assessment in 2015. This regulatory action has spurred the production of BPA alternatives, raising concerns about their safety due to insufficient toxicological data. Addressing this gap is crucial for ensuring human and environmental health. In this project, multiple genotoxicity endpoints were applied for testing of two regulatory relevant BPA alternatives, bisphenol E (BPE) and bisphenol P (BPP), in different human models: 2D HepG2 liver cells, 3D liver spheroids and primary human peripheral blood lymphocytes. DNA strand breaks and oxidised base lesions were evaluated by the enzyme-modified version of the comet assay, while clastogenicity and aneugenicity were analysed by the in vitro micronucleus assay (OECD TG 487, 2016), together with cytotoxicity. Development of new advanced models (NAMs), as 3D spheroids, are essential for next-generation risk assessment (NGRA) in line with the 3R's to replace, reduce or refine animal experiments. In this aspect, validation and standardisation of NAMs are needed to reach regulatory readiness level and development of OECD Test Guidelines. Therefore, a standardisation and pre-validation of the advanced 3D liver spheroid model was performed by using multiple genotoxicity endpoints and by comparing the obtained results with standard genotoxicity models.
2024
A Quantitative Model of Endogenous Climate Adaptation: Data Challenges, Validation, and Applications
2024
2024
2024
Permafrost is a considerable carbon reservoir harboring up to 1700 petagrams of carbon accumulated over millennia, which can be mobilized as permafrost thaws under global warming. Recent studies have highlighted that a fraction of this carbon can be transformed to atmospheric volatile organic compounds, which can affect the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosols. In this study, active layer soils from the seasonally unfrozen layer above the permafrost were collected from two distinct locations of the Greenlandic permafrost and incubated to explore their roles in the soil-atmosphere exchange of volatile organic compounds. Results show that these soils can actively function as sinks of these compounds, despite their different physiochemical properties. Upper active layer possessed relatively higher uptake capacities; factors including soil moisture, organic matter, and microbial biomass carbon were identified as the main factors correlating with the uptake rates. Additionally, uptake coefficients for several compounds were calculated for their potential use in future model development. Correlation analysis and the varying coefficients indicate that the sink was likely biotic. The development of a deeper active layer under climate change may enhance the sink capacity and reduce the net emissions of volatile organic compounds from permafrost thaw.
Springer Nature
2025
2025
Road traffic externalities are an important consequence of land-use and transport interactions and may be especially induced by their inefficient combinations. In this study, we integrate land-use, transport and emission modelling tools (the LUTEm framework) to assess how suburban expansion vs. inward densification scenarios influence journey parameters, road network performance and traffic emissions. Case-study simulations for Warsaw (Poland) underscore the negative consequences of suburban sprawl development, which are hardly mitigated by additional land-use or transport interventions, such as rebalancing of population-workplace distribution or road capacity reductions. On the other side, compact city development lowers global traffic congestion and emissions, but can also raise the risks of traffic externalities in central city area unless complemented with further interventions such as improved public transport attractiveness. This study aims to enrich the understanding of how integrating the land-use development and transport interventions can ultimately influence travel parameters and reduce urban road traffic externalities.
Elsevier
2025
HTAP3 Fires: towards a multi-model, multi-pollutant study of fire impacts
Open biomass burning has major impacts globally and regionally on atmospheric composition. Fire emissions include particulate matter, tropospheric ozone precursors, and greenhouse gases, as well as persistent organic pollutants, mercury, and other metals. Fire frequency, intensity, duration, and location are changing as the climate warms, and modelling these fires and their impacts is becoming more and more critical to inform climate adaptation and mitigation, as well as land management. Indeed, the air pollution from fires can reverse the progress made by emission controls on industry and transportation. At the same time, nearly all aspects of fire modelling – such as emissions, plume injection height, long-range transport, and plume chemistry – are highly uncertain. This paper outlines a multi-model, multi-pollutant, multi-regional study to improve the understanding of the uncertainties and variability in fire atmospheric science, models, and fires' impacts, in addition to providing quantitative estimates of the air pollution and radiative impacts of biomass burning. Coordinated under the auspices of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution, the international atmospheric modelling and fire science communities are working towards the common goal of improving global fire modelling and using this multi-model experiment to provide estimates of fire pollution for impact studies. This paper outlines the research needs, opportunities, and options for the fire-focused multi-model experiments and provides guidance for these modelling experiments, outputs, and analyses that are to be pursued over the next 3 to 5 years. The paper proposes a plan for delivering specific products at key points over this period to meet important milestones relevant to science and policy audiences.
2025
Critical review of the atmospheric composition observing capabilities for monitoring and forecasting
WMO
2025