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Investigating the impact of climate change on PCB-153 exposure in Arctic seabirds with the nested exposure model

At the same time Arctic ecosystems experiences rapid climate change, at a rate four times faster than the global average, they remain burdened by long-range transported pollution, notably with legacy polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The present study investigates the potential impact of climate change on seabird exposure to PCB-153 using the established Nested Exposure Model (NEM), here expanded with three seabird species, i.e. common eider (Somateria mollissima), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus), as well as the filter feeder blue mussel (Mytulis edulis). The model's performance was evaluated using empirical time trends of the seabird species in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, and using tissue concentrations from filter feeders along the northern Norwegian coast. NEM successfully replicated empirical PCB-153 concentrations, confirming its ability to simulate PCB-153 bioaccumulation in the studied seabird species within an order of magnitude. Based on global PCB-153 emission estimates, simulations run until the year 2100 predicted seabird blood concentrations 99% lower than in year 2000. Model scenarios with climate change-induced altered dietary composition and lipid dynamics showed to have minimal impact on future PCB-153 exposure, compared to temporal changes in primary emissions of PCB-153. The present study suggests the potential of mechanistic modelling in assessing POP exposure in Arctic seabirds within a multiple stressor context.

2025

Hazard characterization of the mycotoxins enniatins and beauvericin to identify data gaps and improve risk assessment for human health

Enniatins (ENNs) and beauvericin (BEA) are cyclic hexadepsipeptide fungal metabolites which have demonstrated antibiotic, antimycotic, and insecticidal activities. The substantial toxic potentials of these mycotoxins are associated with their ionophoric molecular properties and relatively high lipophilicities. ENNs occur extensively in grain and grain-derived products and are considered a food safety issue by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). The tolerable daily intake and maximum levels for ENNs in humans and animals remain unestablished due to key toxicological and toxicokinetic data gaps, preventing full risk assessment. Aiming to find critical data gaps impeding hazard characterization and risk evaluation, this review presents a comprehensive summary of the existing information from in vitro and in vivo studies on toxicokinetic characteristics and cytotoxic, genotoxic, immunotoxic, endocrine, reproductive and developmental effects of the most prevalent ENN analogues (ENN A, A1, B, B1) and BEA. The missing information identified showed that additional studies on ENNs and BEA have to be performed before sufficient data for an in-depth hazard characterisation of these mycotoxins become available.

2025

Measurement Report: Changes in ammonia emissions since the 18th century in south-eastern Europe inferred from an Elbrus (Caucasus, Russia) ice-core record

Atmospheric ammonia (NH3) is a key transboundary air pollutant that contributes to the impacts of nitrogen and acidity on terrestrial ecosystems. Ammonia also contributes to the atmospheric aerosol that affects air quality. Emission inventories indicate that NH3 was predominantly emitted by agriculture over the 19th and 20th centuries but, up to now, these estimates have not been compared to long-term observations. To document past atmospheric NH3 pollution in south-eastern Europe, ammonium (NH) was analysed along an ice core extracted from Mount Elbrus in the Caucasus, Russia. The NH ice-core record indicates a 3.5-fold increase in concentrations between 1750 and 1990 CE. Remaining moderate prior to 1950 CE, the increase then accelerated to reach a maximum in 1989 CE. Comparison between ice-core trends and estimated past emissions using state-of-the-art atmospheric transport modelling of submicron-scale aerosols (FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion) model) indicates good agreement with the course of estimated NH3 emissions from south-eastern Europe since ∼ 1750 CE, with the main contributions from south European Russia, Türkiye, Georgia, and Ukraine. Examination of ice deposited prior to 1850 CE, when agricultural activities remained limited, suggests an NH ice concentration related to natural soil emissions representing ∼ 20 % of the 1980–2009 CE NH level, a level mainly related to current agricultural emissions that almost completely outweigh biogenic emissions from natural soil. These findings on historical NH3 emission trends represent a significant contribution to the understanding of ammonia emissions in Europe over the last 250 years.

2025

Using a citizen science approach to assess nanoplastics pollution in remote high-altitude glaciers

Nanoplastics are suspected to pollute every environment on Earth, including very remote areas reached via atmospheric transport. We approached the challenge of measuring environmental nanoplastics by combining high-sensitivity TD-PTR-MS (thermal desorption-proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometry) with trained mountaineers sampling high-altitude glaciers (“citizen science”). Particles < 1 μm were analysed for common polymers (polyethylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene and tire wear particles), revealing nanoplastic concentrations ranging 2–80 ng mL− 1 at five of 14 sites. The dominant polymer types found in this study were tire wear, polystyrene and polyethylene particles (41%, 28% and 12%, respectively). Lagrangian dispersion modelling was used to reconstruct possible sources of micro- and nanoplastic emissions for those observations, which appear to lie largely to the west of the Alps. France, Spain and Switzerland have the highest contributions to the modelled emissions. The citizen science approach was found to be feasible providing strict quality control measures are in place, and is an effective way to be able to collect data from remote and inaccessible regions across the world.

2025

The active layer soils of Greenlandic permafrost areas can function as important sinks for volatile organic compounds

Permafrost is a considerable carbon reservoir harboring up to 1700 petagrams of carbon accumulated over millennia, which can be mobilized as permafrost thaws under global warming. Recent studies have highlighted that a fraction of this carbon can be transformed to atmospheric volatile organic compounds, which can affect the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosols. In this study, active layer soils from the seasonally unfrozen layer above the permafrost were collected from two distinct locations of the Greenlandic permafrost and incubated to explore their roles in the soil-atmosphere exchange of volatile organic compounds. Results show that these soils can actively function as sinks of these compounds, despite their different physiochemical properties. Upper active layer possessed relatively higher uptake capacities; factors including soil moisture, organic matter, and microbial biomass carbon were identified as the main factors correlating with the uptake rates. Additionally, uptake coefficients for several compounds were calculated for their potential use in future model development. Correlation analysis and the varying coefficients indicate that the sink was likely biotic. The development of a deeper active layer under climate change may enhance the sink capacity and reduce the net emissions of volatile organic compounds from permafrost thaw.

2025

Bygger hytte av plast: – Dette er bra for miljøet

Herzke, Dorte (intervjuobjekt); Ellefsen, Vegard Unger (journalist)

2025

Towards an integrated data-driven infrastructure (InfraNor)

The Arctic is warming almost four times faster compared to the rest of the world (Rantanen et al. 2022). Svalbard and its surroundings have warmed faster than most of the Arctic (Cai et al. 2021; Isaksen et al. 2022). The Svalbard archipelago also shows large temperature variations from south to north and east to west (Østby et al. 2017). Svalbard has good infrastructure, logistics and communications (airport, port, laboratories), and excellent possibilities for data transfer. This makes Svalbard and its surroundings an attractive living natural laboratory for long-term and campaign-based Arctic studies.

2025

Future CH4 as modelled by a fully coupled Earth system model: prescribed GHG concentrations vs. interactive CH4 sources and sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios, using both the prescribed GHG concentrations as well as the interactive CH4 sources and sinks setup of the model, to quantify the model performance and its sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the ECLIPSE V6b emission database to simulate the future evolution of CH4 sources, sinks, and levels from 2015 to 2050. Results show that the prescribed GHG version underestimates the observed surface CH4 concentrations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1%, with the largest underestimations over the continental emission regions, while the interactive simulation underestimates the observations by 2%, with the biases largest over oceans and smaller over the continents. For the future, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In addition, the interactive simulation calculates slightly larger O3 and OH mixing ratios, in particular over the northern hemisphere, leading to slightly decreased CH4 lifetime in the present day. The CH4 forcing is projected to increase in both scenarios, in particular in the CLE scenario, from 0.53 W m−2 in the present day to 0.73 W m−2 in 2050. In addition, the interactive simulations estimate slightly higher tropospheric O3 forcing compared to prescribed simulations, due to slightly higher O3 mixing ratios simulated by the interactive models. While in the CLE, tropospheric O3 forcing continues to increase, the MFR scenario leads to a decrease in tropospheric O3 forcing, leading to a climate benefit. Our results highlight that in the interactive models, the response of concentrations are not necessarily linear with the changes in emissions as the chemistry is non-linear, and dependent on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to have the CH4 sources and chemical sinks to be represented comprehensively in climate models.

2025

Overview of methods for production of sterile salmonids, their applicability in aquaculture and possible implications to wild salmon populations and biodiversity in Norway

VKM has assessed the positive and negative effects on biodiversity were sterile salmon to be used in Norwegian aquaculture. Triploidisation is assessed as the most effective method for sterilising fish, but it can affect the welfare and health of the fish.

Several other techniques for producing sterile salmon are being tested, but it is too early to determine whether they can be used in large-scale farming.

This is the key message in a knowledge summary VKM has prepared for the Norwegian Environment Agency.

Background
Escaped farmed salmon poses a major threat to wild salmon in Norway. hey can interbreed with wild salmon, genetically alter them, and make the populations less adaptable and more vulnerable to disease and environmental changes. A possible solution to the problem may be to use sterile salmon in farming.

To date, only triploidisation has been tested. Newly fertilised eggs are given a hydrostatic pressure shock, thereby retaining an extra set of chromosomes which render the fish sterile. This method is currently the only one tested on a large scale. Triploidisation is effective but can also pose health and welfare challenges to fish.

Methods
VKM has reviewed available scientific literature regarding methods that can be used to produce sterile salmon. VKM has assessed whether these methods work as well, or better, than triploidy and whether they are likely to have fewer negative effects on fish welfare. Assessments have also been made of whether farmed fish treated with other sterilisation methods pose a greater or lesser threat to wild salmon than traditional farmed salmon.

VKM has looked at the possibilities for further development of the triploidisation technique and has also assessed various methods currently being tested for producing sterile fish. Some of these are still at the laboratory-testing stage, while others are approaching trials with release into sea-pens. VKM has grouped the different methods based on whether they cause permanent changes in the genome (so-called "knock-out" of important genes) or whether the changes only result in temporary blocking or downregulation of gene expression (so-called "knock-down").

Results
VKM concludes that triploidisation remains the most effective method and that there are possibilities to further develop this methodology through targeted breeding and adjustments in how the fish are kept. These measures can potentially solve the challenges for fish health and welfare. Using pure triploid female lines can also reduce some of the other challenges by preventing spawning interactions in rivers and reducing disease transmission to wild salmon.

Alternative sterilisation methods, such as gene editing, vaccination, and temporary downregulation of proteins for gonad development using antisense oligomers and egg immersion, are promising but still under development.

VKM assesses that methods causing permanent changes in the genome of diploid fish have a higher inherent risk than methods that only affect gene expression.

Hope in egg-bathing
Perhaps the most promising technique for safe production of sterile salmon is to add synthetic oligonucleotides to the eggs at an early stage, thereby preventing germ cell development without causing any inheritable changes. Such oligonucleotides can be injected into the eggs or absorbed by the eggs through bathing (immersion) in a special solution.

"Especially the method involving targeted 'tools,' such as oligonucleotides that prevent germ cell development and can be added to the eggs in a water bath, seems promising," says Johanna Bodin, member of the Panel for Genetically Modified organisms and spokesperson for the report.

(...)

2025

Air Quality and Healthy Ageing: Predictive Modelling of Pollutants using CNN Quantum-LSTM

The concept of healthy ageing is emerging and becoming a norm to achieve a high quality of life, reducing healthcare costs and promoting longevity. Rapid growth in global population and urbanisation requires substantial efforts to ensure healthy and supportive environments to improve the quality of life, closely aligned with the principles of healthy ageing. Access to fundamental resources which include quality healthcare services, clean air, green and blue spaces plays a pivotal role in achieving this goal. Air quality, in particular, is a critical factor in achieving healthy ageing targets. However, it necessitates a global effort to develop and implement policies aimed at reducing air pollution, which has severe implications for human health including cognitive impairment and neurodegenerative diseases, while promoting healthier environments such as high quality green and blue spaces for all age groups. Such actions inevitably depend on the current status of air pollution and better predictive models to mitigate the harmful impact of emissions on planetary health and public health. In this work, we proposed a hybrid model referred as AirVCQnet, which combines the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method with a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a quantum long short-term memory (QLSTM) network for the prediction of air pollutants. The performance of the proposed model is analysed on five key pollutants including fine Particulate Matter PM2.5, Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3), PM10, and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), sourced from air quality monitoring station in Northern Ireland, UK. The effectiveness of the proposed model is evaluated by comparing its performance with its equivalent classical counterpart using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-squared (R2). The results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model, achieving a performance gain of up to 14% and validating its robustness, efficiency and reliability by leveraging t.

2025

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